Sunday, November 02, 2008

Will It Be John McCain or Barack Obama? Clarity at twilights last gleaming

Whoever is elected, they will have to deal with a horrible economy and a populace that will demand results. The problem is, the populace is by and large idiotic. Let me clarify. We have a democrat majority in both houses and have since 2006. Since then the congress has a 9% approval rating. For some reason, the american public wants to increase the percentage, that is what the polls show, and this could give the democrats both a veto and filibuster proof majority. How this is a good thing makes no sense other than Americans are willing to cut off their nose to spite their face. 

Faced with the probability of a clear and controlling democrat majority, will Americans put a democrat in the white house? As much as my pages has been filled with quasi-paranoid posts propagandizing Obama as a far left socialist (I believe he is), reality will be somewhat different. I don't believe there will be any secession movement and I do not believe that we will have a socialist nation immediately. Congress has to worry about 2010 and there are limits to what he could do, particularly without social upheaval. Still we will see changes. 

If Obama gets in we will see two supreme court justices retire. My guess is Stevens and Ginsberg would step down. This will leave two openings that would surely be filled with activist justices. We would also see a difference in the justice departments interpretation of the second amendment and how it deals with gun rights. I also wouldn't be surprised if the congress tried to pass a freedom of choice act in regards to abortion. I also think we will see some sort of nationalized healthcare. On the issues of taxes, No matter what Obama says, overall taxes will be much higher under his tenure. We will see increases in fuel taxes, estate taxes, capital gains taxes, and other areas that the congress will look to pull money out of the economy to pay for the social programs they promulgate. So while the income tax for most people will be the same or less, the effective taxation will increase considerably. 

If McCain gets in by some miracle, he won't be like Bush or Obama, but somewhere in the middle. Think old school democrat like Harry Truman or even JFK. I think we will be more moderate than Bush on some issues and he will probably try to work across the isle. Will all be good? He still has to deal with the bad economy, and while I eschew Obama's Keynesianesque approach, I am not sure McCain would be different enough to be helpful. His policies do not follow Friedman, or even Von Mises on an economic philosophy, and I think the direction will be social-populist light. Certain supreme court justices may or may not hang on, but the government will surely grow, albeit much slower and not to the extent they would with Obama. Will taxes go up? Yes, probably. As much as it would under Obama, no. But the real problem is that neither candidate is willing to cut down on the overall size of the government. Supply side doesn't work. You have to cut the liabilities. 

So where does that leave us Wednesday morning? Well, we all still have to go to work, and we still will have the economic sword of damocles hanging over our heads. The question you should ask yourself is, "where will I be in 4 years depending on whom I vote for".  John Marshall, the fourth Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, said that "the power to tax involves the power to destroy". The question then is, how much destruction can you live with?

Thank you for reading this blog. 

PS, I will be happier once the latest electoral contest is over.  Up to now, I have not endorsed a candidate. My feeling is that it does not matter now. For what it is worth, I supported Fred Thompson in the primaries. I don't dislike McCain so much as I do not think he is the right man for the job now. At this point I am faced with a decision: Should I be pragmatic and vote for McCain, or ideologically consistent and vote for Barr (who is closer to where I am ideologically)? Looking back, there were some candidates that not only would have been better choices politically, but better people for the job, and that goes for both sides. For instance, if the race was between HRC and Obama, I would have to vote for HRC. That being said, Rudy should have been the man on the GOP side. He's the only one with the proper experience on either side to deal with what is coming. 

Thank you again for reading this blog. 

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